Who would ever imagine that a world war could be fought even without engaging enemy forces and firing a single bullet but then the Covid-19 disease currently gripping the entire globe potentially encompasses all crucial elements of global war sans use of gunpowder and other military paraphernalia. The last global war was fought militarily from 1939 to 1945 wherein the then great powers and vast majority of nations involving over 100 million people from more than 30 countries had joined pushing their total economic, industrial and scientific capacities and potential behind the war efforts. Besides the loss of countless human lives, the war led to the emergence of new power centres in a revised socio-political and economic world order. This was officially designated as World War II with the longest and deadliest conflict ever known with estimated human casualties, both military and civil, in the range of 70 to 85 million.
The last global war also led to significant changes in the political alignment and social structure of nations. An important post-war initiative was to establish the forum of United Nations (UN) to foster international peace and cooperation as also to prevent future conflicts. The new world order experienced the emergence of the United States of America (USA) and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR) as two rival superpowers with many other countries rallying behind them, which triggered an era of cold war that lasted for nearly five decades. Finally this ended, among many developments, with the disintegration of USSR into Russia and emergence of the People’s Republic of China, slowly but steadily, as the next global player and potential superpower posing real military and economic challenges to the US and its NATO allies. Now the Communist China is in the centre of the current coronavirus crisis across the globe and some strategists and analysts have already started calling it onset of a world war.
Should Coronavirus Pandemic be Equated with World War?
Over two hundred big and small, recognized and unrecognized countries are currently engaged in a vicious global war with an invisible enemy, the total global mass of which may not probably exceed one gram according to some scientists. The source country that knowingly or unknowingly unleashed it is known but the ownership or responsibility for the same is conspicuously lacking. The other most notable feature is that the past two world wars were fought through an alliance of the military of the feuding group of nations but the current war is being fought standalone by the respective nations through the doctors and health workers across the world while the logistics support and essential supplies is being maintained by the police, other security agencies including military in some cases and essential services staff across the world. Every country of the world is fighting its own battle of Covid-19 disease inflicted by a distinct coronavirus strain identified as SARS-CoV-2 by the World Health Organization (WHO), origin and nature i.e. natural or manmade is still unclear.
The earlier world wars were fought by the military but this was the civilian population in most affected countries that suffered to the maximum extent both in terms of mortality as also other human sufferings. Industrial production and manufacturing was worst hit on these occasion ruining the economy, employment and daily life of common man that took decades for recovery after the war by the respective nations. With the trends available as of now, it appears the world is likely to undergo a physical and emotional experience far worse than the previous world war with traumatic losses and sufferings in terms of human life, economy, employment, prosperity and future well-being. Nearly four billion people across the globe in different countries are under lockdown or curfew of varying degrees with most business and personal work suspended due to mortal fear and looming uncertainty about how long this situation will prevail.
While writing these lines, the world already had a tally of total 3,484,483 coronavirus positive cases and 244,780 deaths so far. The only superpower in the world USA alone has a maximum share of 1,160,774 Covid-19 patients with a record 67,444 deaths which accounts for over 33 percent of total cases and 27 percent deaths recorded worldwide. At least five other Western European countries and members of US led NATO, namely Spain, Italy, France, Germany and UK too are facing grave crisis with high numbers of coronavirus patients and death counts. The USA and aforesaid five West European NATO allies together account for 2,131,292 (61%) coronavirus cases and 180,957 (73%) deaths, which by no means is an ordinary situation. Then the position in other European countries, Canada, Australia, Iran, Turkey, Russia, and Brazil etc. is no good with ever rising numbers and death count, and no foreseeable respite in the offing. If the situation in countries like India, Japan and South Korea is relatively moderate and within control, it is at the tremendous cost of strict lockdown, social distancing and stoppage of business and economic activities in these countries.
The aforesaid is an extraordinary emergent situation and losses both in terms of man and material are no less than a global war. Through the global pandemic and consequent mayhem, if at all any country appears safe and comfortable now, it is the People’s Republic of China where the coronavirus originated supposedly sometime in November 2019 from some still unclear source in Wuhan, Hubei province and spread across the world for sure due to initial carelessness, if not deliberate, of the Chinese government in timely restricting outward travel and failure to alert other countries about the lethality of virus and need for commensurate preventive and remedial measures. Consequently, while the virus was largely contained in Wuhan, China with other major Chinese cities and provinces remaining largely unaffected or minimum affected, it spread unabated across the length and width of other countries of the world by the time they realized the gravity of the situation.
Coronaviruses are actually a large family of viruses which can cause a host of diseases among the humans and animals. There are at least seven identified coronavirus strains; four of which are not known to cause any discomfort in humans but two of them caused significant harm during the last eighteen years. One such virus was responsible for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) disease among human beings from November 2002 to July 2003. The causative coronavirus had originated in China which along with Hong Kong and Taiwan were worst affected from common cold to acute flu like symptoms within 29 territories with total number of 8,096 patients and 774 deaths, which represented about 9.6 percent mortality among the reported cases. The other instance was the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) disease, also known as camel flu, with respiratory infection that was first identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012 with typical symptom like fever, cough, diarrhea and shortness of breath. The MERS cases remained largely restricted in the Arabian Peninsula with total reported cases 1,360 and 527 deaths so far; it represented a high mortality rate of approximately 39 percent.
All viruses are typically an infectious agent of non-cellular and non-living nature with a central core of nucleic acid comprised of ribonucleic acid (RNA) or deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) encased in a protein coat called capsid. The coronaviruses are so named due to corona like spikes also on its sheath enveloped in a bubble of lipid molecules. Their multiplication or reproduction ability is only on account of the nucleic acid core (genome) which is activated only inside a living host cell. The nature and behaviour of the coronavirus producing Covid-19 disease appears to be quite different from all others of corona series, particularly in the context of its transmission and lethality irrespective of temperature and geographical variations across the globe. In that sense, it appears to be more ideally suited and akin to micro-agents such as anthrax and other virulent microorganisms developed by some countries for use as Biological weapons. The way this coronavirus has spread across the world and infested human beings irrespective of temperature and geographical variations, it ideally looks like a potent biological agent unleashed, accidentally or willfully, to trigger a global war.
It’s Like Prophecy and Chinese Strategy Coming True!
The current global coronavirus crisis reminds to many people a suspense thriller “The Eyes of Darkness” which was authored by Dean Koontz of USA and published in May 1981. The book written almost four decade back underlines the prophecy of a pandemic at catastrophic scale in 2020 similar to the Covid-19 disease. At one place in the book, the author talks about a certain manmade agent, namely Wuhan-400, developed at the Chinese RDNA labs outside the city of Wuhan, as a perfect Biological weapon that would affect only human beings. Then at another place, it says that around 2020, a severe pneumonia like illness will spread throughout the globe attacking the lungs and the bronchial tubes of human beings resisting all known treatments. By design or mere a coincident, this prophecy has indeed come true perhaps with a far greater implications and damage globally.
Deng Xiaoping started the Chinese economic reform in 1978 which is often referred to as ‘reform and opening-up’. The success of reforms and the manner of their implementation led to immense improvement in the Chinese economy and quality of life during the next two decades so much so that by the end of twentieth century, the Chinese leadership started visualizing the country as the next global leader and superpower. Disintegration of the USSR in 1990s and China’s own vast population and geographical spread only further strengthened this ambition and resolve. This also reminds a book “Unrestricted Warfare” authored by two colonels of PLA, Qiao Liang & Wang Xiangsui, in February 1999, which underlines the tactics of China as a developing country to compensate for their military inferiority vis-à-vis United States during a high tech war. The authors inter alia penned a strategy for the country to use money power to prepare an army of loyal people in America who could constantly criticize and oppose the federal government in an endeavor to paralyze normal functioning; wage an economic war targeting financial institutions and target the network system through hacking into websites and other available means.
The primary concern shown in the book was how a country like China can defeat a technologically superior adversary like United State utilizing alternative means. The book noted that many alternative methods, in place of direct military confrontation, have similar and even greater destructive potential. Considering the interconnected nature of global economics and inter-dependence of nations, it is possible to inflict grievous harm on the economies of other nations without any direct offensive operation. Similarly, cyber-attacks disabling networks can easily hamstring large areas of life that are dependent on them for coordination. Another example of network warfare could be shutting down a network that supplies power; massive power outages could easily cripple industry, defense, medicine, and other crucial areas of life. Further, the terrorism as a means may affect a rather small section of population but it can easily erode any nation’s sense of security and well-being. In a nutshell, these alternative tactics together constitute a “grand warfare method” combining all possible methods and dimensions. Obviously, there is no place of any ethics and morality in achieving upper hand over any potential adversary.
In essence, the authors favoured a strategy of adopting all known subversive tactics including terrorism as alternative of direct military conflict with the superior adversary, and for this they didn’t have any moral or ethical dilemma as in case of free societies. It is beyond imagination that such a crafty work by the senior army officers of PLA would go unnoticed and stay as just an academic exercise, and the Chinese leadership will not consider it to accomplish its global objectives and ambitions. The world fraternity has practically experienced how China had stalled action against the dreaded terrorist organization Jaish-e-Mohammad and its Chief Masood Azhar in UN Security Council for years on flimsy and untenable grounds. The on-going US-China trade war is an open secret, in which US have so often alleged that the Chinese government has given unfair and discriminatory competitive advantages to Chinese state-owned and private companies. In a way, the coronavirus crisis has already triggered an economic war too. It is also pretty clear that during the current pandemic, the economy of US and its main NATO allies is likely to suffer most, even greater than the human life and other losses.
There are many questions relating to the pandemic that are baffling the international community; only China has answers but it has so far deflected all such queries with shifting stands and deliberate ambiguities. These include hiding of information about the epidemic in Wuhan from the rest of the world for a considerably long time, allowing hundreds of thousand people from Wuhan in January 2020 for outward travel to various destinations worldwide, punishing early whistle-blowers at home, alleged destruction of vial samples of the virus before testing; and stalling discussion on coronavirus in the UN Security Council. It is also mystifying why the coronavirus had either very mild or no adverse impact in many cities and provinces of China, which has at least sixteen cities with over 10 million people including cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing with over 20 to 30 million people. India is another country that enforced strict lockdown and social distancing when only few cases were known, yet the virus has spread through all states. While the origin of coronavirus is still uncertain with ambiguous position maintained by China, several conspiracy theories are also circulating. One rather sinister account published by Robert Morningstar of Ufospotlight E-magazine in February citing a Chinese intelligence source suggested a project on secret development of a potent biological agent gone haywire with disastrous implications. But the Chinese government or Communist party does not appear of taking cognizance either for any legal action or even a simple denial.
Ever since the Covid-19 disease was formally so named and infection started spreading across the globe, there have been heated discussions among scientists, political and diplomatic analysts, and media whether the virus is natural or manmade. There are conflicting reports about the “patient zero” too but China has not cared to put full stop to it by revealing truth. Even the extent of disease and number of casualties in China are not reliable. Based on the numbers of mobiles and landlines missing or officially closed since December 2019, some reports have appeared suggesting the actual death count around 21 million, which drastically varies with the Chinese official count of 4,633 (1290 added after Wuhan was opened after lockdown). Even the international media is divided in their opinion about the origin and nature of the coronavirus based on the political ideology. The Fox News, believed to have rightwing political leanings, suggested around mid-April that there is “increasing confidence” in US administration that the outbreak was caused by an experiment in Wuhan laboratory. On the other hand, UK based daily The Guardian, with left-centric political leanings, has concluded that there is no evidence of the coronavirus being manmade citing certain scientists and experts.
On their part, the Chinese administration has not allowed any global scientists to visit the Wuhan laboratory to evaluate what took place there, or what’s happening there now. With their unlimited resources and access to relevant data and locations, the Chinese government should give relevant inputs to the world in no uncertain terms; instead, they have opted to rely upon the WHO version that there is no evidence the new coronavirus was created in a laboratory. The WHO has already lost its credibility for its lackadaisical approach in handling the pandemic. The point is why China is so cryptic about the origin and nature of the virus; it is neither coming out with truth nor is willing to cooperate with other nations to jointly work to unravel truth. The way this virus has behaved and caused havoc across the globe irrespective of temperature and other climatic/geographical conditions, it is more likely to be manmade probably set loose in an accidental release. Whatever be the case, the impact is somewhat akin to what the authors of the work “Unrestricted Warfare” visualized over two decades ago.
Escalation of War and Its Global Impact
Perhaps for the first time in the history of the mankind, the entire world is at war – a war against the invasion of an invisible enemy in all territories at the same time, and every country is fighting it devising its own strategy. There is the world’s most powerful country USA which initially did not compromise its business and economic activities and interests, and took rather lenient measures on lockdown and social distancing; consequently, it suffered most with nearly 1.2 million diseased cases with more than 67 thousands deaths so far. In USA, 30-35 thousand fresh coronavirus positive cases are currently reported daily with 1,500 to 2,000 daily mortality figures. Similarly, other five worst affected countries Italy, Spain, France, UK and Germany are from Western Europe and NATO allies both in terms of total number of cases and deaths. On the other hand, Asian countries like Japan and South Korea have been largely able to contain the virus applying the principle of lockdown and social distancing, and striking balance with business and economic activities during the period. Among Islamic countries, Iran was major casualty initially but now Turkey has overtaken it with others like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and UAE too fast catching up. Initial trend in some geographically larger countries like Russia, Brazil and Canada was mild but now they are finding it difficult to stop the virus. Over two hundred countries are fighting this war and, ironically, countries more open to outside influence, modern living and economic prosperity are ones more vulnerable and affected.
India is second largest in population after China with nearly 135 billion people as also the most complex human society in terms of the socio-religious parameters. The top leadership was, however, adequately alert and proactive ever since the trends of the coronavirus became known to the world outside China. Consequently, after initial precautionary measures and necessary checks and restrictions on international travellers, India had gone into a rigorous lockdown and social distancing mode in March even suspending all business and economic activities except essential services and supplies like grocery, milk, fruits and vegetables, and medicines. It has to fight, however, a unique battle different from all other nations because there is a considerable section within the particular minority community, which willfully ignores and violates government instructions in the name of religion. These people are responsible for over one-third of the total coronavirus positive cases in the disease hotspots in the country. Then they are also the people who have deliberately tried to spread the virus in several cases, resorted to violence, and attacked police, doctors and health workers in hundreds of instances countrywide. Notwithstanding these constraints, the country has largely succeeded in slowing down the progression of the coronavirus disease in the country.
It may not be an exaggeration to state that the coronavirus has pushed the entire global economy in a grave recession and ICU. With the infection gone berserk, the powerful countries such as US, Germany, France, UK and Italy have not only lost control over the disease spread but their economy too is in a total mess. Situation in the rest of the Europe and other continents is no better and just marginally good or bad in relative terms. In just few weeks, the pandemic has shaved off nearly one-third of the global market cap. Usually the stock and equity markets in the world among the major players like US, UK, Germany, France and Japan have been bad to worse with steep fall reported ranging from one-quarter to one-third during March 2020 alone with no signs of recovery till now. The Indian equity market too has been showing constant ups and down after sharp fall in March 2020 but the Sensex is still below 20% the peak achieved few months ago. The spread of coronavirus disease has triggered panic worldwide shaking the confidence of investors everywhere. With industrial and manufacturing activities virtually standstill with other sectors too under severe strain, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has already forecasted reduction in the global gross domestic product (GDP) nearly by 50 percent of the original growth projections for 2020.
It is obvious that none of the countries including developed nations of North America and Western Europe were ready to handle such an emergency at such a vast scale despite their well-developed social security and health sectors. Italy was first European country that became worse hit and failed to contain the spread of virus. That they were totally caught napping with no inkling of what it was up to is evident from the fact that they were found actively engaged in “hug a Chinese” campaign at the call given by the local Chinese population when the reports of panic started coming out of Wuhan, China in February-March 2020 and people elsewhere started becoming little weary. Almost all affected countries experienced terrible shortages of face masks, gloves, ventilators and testing kits; and there are reports from the developed countries about the attending doctors and health staff complaining about non-supply of PPE safety equipment and deaths on account of non-availability of ventilators. In such a critical contingency and desperation, the majority of the countries including US, Italy, Spain, Canada, India, and so on had no option but to place orders on the Chinese firms for the quick supply of needful equipment and implements.
On the other hand, China is found rejoicing its victory over the virus and it has totally quarantined itself from rest of the world. Though China was the original flash point of the viral outbreak, it’s economy has largely remained unaffected with just about 3 percent downswing in the stock market from 1st February to 10 April. By their own accounts, all business and economic activities have resumed, industrial and manufacturing units have geared up production, and all civil activities, malls, cinema, business establishments, capital and debt markets etc. are fast returning to normal. According to reports, the Chinese FOREX reserves were all time high at over $3,060 billion by the end of March 2020, enough liquidity released by its Central Bank, stocks and equity markets remaining least affected due to coronavirus crisis and investors’ sentiments upbeat, the country is definitely perceiving the current global crisis and slowdown as an opportunity for a robust business and investment worldwide. Clearly, the Communist China has no qualms about any ethics or morality in its intentions as well as international relations and trade. By all means, it appears as if just this one virus has changed the total political and economic order of the world, its control suo moto passing on to China from US & Western European countries.
During the past two decades, China had already made considerable investment in Europe particularly in the countries like Italy and UK. According to reports, over 200 Italian businesses are already controlled by Chinese owners (mainland) while China’s Central Bank holds high stakes in several Italian blue chips like Fiat, Telecom Italia, Generali, Eni, and so on. With the markets taking a nosedive during the current pandemic in many countries, the Chinese banks and companies are aggressively on a look out for buying shares in vulnerable companies abroad. The usual trend is whenever there is a fall in demand, the companies are unable to pay back the debt and are willing to sell a stake to anyone keen to invest. Most of the Western Europe is currently facing this problem with economies of the countries like Italy, Spain, Germany, France and UK are under severe strain, and China does not want to miss this opportunity. It has already recovered, if at all we call it a blow on account of Covid disease, and resumed its economic activities. The Chinese government is reported to have announced billions of dollars as stimulus to its companies; and such companies are exploring opportunities to investment in the Europe and other parts of world. The current Chinese FOREX reserves of more than 3 trillion dollars and the government keen to flood the Chinese companies with cheap capital, this coronavirus crisis has provided an ideal environment for them to buy foreign assets.
With several countries already under the debt trap due to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, China is eying every nook and corner for enhancing its influence by controlling world economy through greater investment in countries, wherever possible. Only few years back reeling under the debt repayment burden, Sri Lanka government had to cough up their Hambantota Port along with about 15,000 acre land in vicinity to China on lease for 99 years. Now the Central Bank of China has acquired stake in India’s top lender, the Housing Development Finance Corporation (HDFC) by buying as many as 10.75 million shares during the quarter ended March 2020, when the latter’s shares were continuously going down amidst the slowdown triggered by the coronavirus disease. The current policy of China appears to make investment in foreign companies for acquiring ownership and stake in addition to establishing new profitable ventures. Though it is admitted that the Chinese Central Bank’s purchase of HDFC shares in India was as per the extant rules and procedure; hence technically the Chinese bank has not committed any wrong. In sectors where the countries allow FDI through automatic route, any foreign agency is free to invest but here it is not the investment per se but the timing of investment raises ethical questions and alarm bell.
The Chinese manufacturers too are making it a hay day by accelerating production to maximize export to hapless coronavirus hit countries. As most affected countries are facing shortage of equipment and PPE accessories required by the corona fighters, patients and public with their own industries under lockdown or other constraints, many countries have perforce placed huge orders for face masks, testing kits, ventilators, PPE, and other equipment on Chinese suppliers. Consequently, many countries including, USA, Canada, Italy, Germany, Spain, UK, Netherlands, Turkey, Philippine, Czech Republic, Slovakia and India have complained about the defective supplies and some have even withdrawn and perforce cancelled orders. For instance, Spain is stated to have returned around 6,00,000 faulty kits to its Chinese manufacturer company by the name of Shenzhen Bioeasy Technology; Turkey too has similar experience and Netherlands has recalled tens of thousands of imported defective masks. Several Indian states have refused to use Chinese testing kits for giving false and unreliable result; consequently, the government has decided to withdraw faulty Covid-19 rapid antibody testing kits from use cancelling imports from China.
In this vicious environment of fighting coronavirus both for health and economy, every country is obligated to take necessary steps domestically to keep investors’ sentiment and moral high so as to have minimum negative impact on their economic growth. For instance, the US Senate recently passed a $2 trillion coronavirus aid bill to help American workers and businesses to mitigate the hardship of the common man. The Indian government too announced a relief package of Rs 1.7 trillion ($22.6 billion) to help the underprivileged, poor and migrant workers affected by the lockdown amid the Covid-19 crisis on 26 March 2020, followed by the Reserve Bank easing liquidity, reducing interest rates and granting temporary moratorium on loan repayments. Similar measures have been taken by many other countries severely hit by the coronavirus crisis. The central banks in many countries, as in case of India, have slashed interest rates and taken steps to augment liquidity of the banks and financial institutions to make borrowing cheaper and encourage spending to boost the economy. Japan is yet another country which has approved a stimulus package worth a whopping 108.2 trillion yen (US$ 993 billion) to steer clear of the impact of the pandemic.
Over the years, while expanding its business and trade globally, China has followed restrictive trade practices domestically thereby not sufficiently opening the scope of imports and sharing technology w with other countries. This had already irked many developed economies, particularly US, which had begun setting tariffs and other trade barriers in retaliation on China in 2018 with an objective of forcing it to make amends to unfair trade practices that inter alia include the growing trade deficit, theft of intellectual property and forced transfer of American technology to China. The current pandemic has only accelerated this trade war with increasing anger and dissatisfaction with the Chinese government. Many US companies are already in lookout for shifting their production base to India and other Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam. Japan has already announced in April 2020 to set out $2.2 billion to their firms for shifting production base back to Japan or alternatively to any other countries outside China. Clearly, unfair trade practices of China have forced other countries to take measures to safeguard their national interests and the current corona war has only further accelerated this trade war.
Apprehensive of the Chinese maneuvers to buy foreign companies or invest in their shareholdings, many European countries have tightened their FDI rules to prevent hostile takeover of their companies by the Chinese firms. The European Union too has issued new FDI guidelines keeping in view economic crisis owing to the Covid-19 pandemic and vulnerability of European companies, especially in Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal. Now, the investment in critical sectors such as Healthcare, Energy, Finance, and Defense is practically banned in these countries. Spain has separately capped the FDI limit in general companies at 10 percent while Italy has announced new rules for investment in strategic industries eliminating the scope of the takeover by foreign investors. Germany too has amended its FDI laws to make foreign takeover of its companies difficult. To protect Indian companies from Chinese onslaught, the Government has now amended its foreign direct investment (FDI) policy to enforce ban on investments through the automatic route by entities from the countries sharing border with the country. Actually, such provision already existed for Pakistan and Bangladesh and now it has been extended to all neighbouring countries.
Needless to mention, aforesaid actions taken by various countries are intended to safeguard interests of their business and industries from the hostile takeover or encroachment from Chinese companies, banks and other financial institutions. The oversight of decades has already put countries like US, European Union, Japan and India at great disadvantage vis-à-vis Chinese trade; the US had realized and started resisting it almost two years back; other countries are realizing it now and taking remedial measures. Unethical practices and mercenary attitude of China through the pandemic has only added more bitterness and resentment among nations. But China appears neither remorseful nor hesitant to give back to its adversaries in its usual way. In fact, its recent aggressive posturing and intrusions in South as well as East China Sea has caused a lot of concern to regional and global powers, prompting Japan, Vietnam and Philippine to lodge protests with China and a reported face off between US and Chinese warships. There are reports that China’s Central Bank is likely to re-peg Yuan’s exchange rate to US Dollar to the former’s advantage. Chinese state media has released an animated propaganda video few days back mocking US of its efforts to fight the coronavirus. This action is certainly in a bad taste both in intent and timing; this is what they did with India too during the Doklam military stand off. It is a different matter that China was forced to eat humble pie in that case and abandoned attempt to build illegal road in Bhutan’s territory. Thus evidently, the global economic war with some muscle flexing has begun along with the coronavirus pandemic.
Postscript
Ordinarily, the Gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services of a nation in a given year and it is considered as an important economic parameter not only to indicate the size of the country’s economy but also the index of its progress and prosperity. On this scale, China is competing with US and is ranked only next to it for many years now. In addition, the FOREX reserves and external debt are two other crucial parameters to evaluate any country’s strength and ability to grow and expand. Ordinarily, high public debt in normal times is considered good as it facilitates extra funds to invest in the country’s economic growth but it may be counterproductive too in the event of war or economic crisis. It is no more a secret that China is an emerging economic giant and next superpower with ambition to surpass US, the only rival in this race. In fact, the ongoing trade war between the two countries further compounded by the corona pandemic is a litmus test to determine the winner. While on national debt front, China is reasonably comfortable compared to US, but the Chinese FOREX reserves of over $3061 Billion compared to US’s paltry $129 Billion as of March 2020 put the former at great advantage with ample confidence and potential in a trade and economic war.
Traditionally, wars are fought by nations for definite reasons and objectives that may include the territorial gain, economic gain or even some revenge. The other causative factors of any war could be to establish superiority of religion, nationalism, civil or revolutionary ideas but most wars in the modern age have been fought either to settle the territorial dispute or to protect or gain economic interests. Every war necessarily carry negative impacts in terms of the loss of human lives, ruin of economy through destruction of capital and trade, and human sufferings in terms of the spread of diseases, loss of employment and means of livelihood, displacement of people, and so on. If we assess the current pandemic in the context of global perspective, it carries all the aforesaid fundamentals of war. All the nations have lost priceless human lives in the form of their hapless citizens, their economy is in ruins, unemployment and displacement of people has gained, and people have lost their means of livelihood. Assuming the current corona pandemic has already started a silent global war; if so, the virus SARS-CoV-2 is for sure a Chinese Trojan horse. As it appears the Covid-19 has set an agenda for the global dominance; as of now China is at advantage with US and allies struggling for survival for the life and economy. But it is going to be a long drawn battle and the winners will for sure dictate the new world order.
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