The present conflict involving the United States-Israel on one side and Iran on the other is, undoubtedly, a systemic threat to world peace primarily through its potential for an uncontrollable regional conflict and destruction, besides the collapse of global energy security and supply chain. This war started with the joint launch of the “Operation Epic Fury” by the United States and “Operation Roaring Lion” by Israel on 28 February 2026 with stated objectives of destroying Iranian offensive missiles, command nodes and nuclear infrastructure. Unlike localized wars, this confrontation involves a direct assault on the Iranian state, including its military infrastructure and leadership, which has triggered a massive asymmetric retaliatory response by the latter targeting US bases in the Gulf and launching ballistic missile waves at Israeli population centers. As the war prolongs, it risks drawing in the neighboring states as other global powers with strategic and energy interests in the region, effectively turning the Middle East into a fractured battleground of proxy and direct warfare, with the UN and other diplomatic options ineffective so far.
Beyond the immediate kinetic destruction largely in Iran and Israel, the conflict has paralyzed the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint responsible for approximately 20% of the world’s oil and significant LNG volumes. Besides, this has severe disruptions to Arab states infrastructure and a significant reduction in their oils and liquified natural gas (LNG) production. The maritime blockade has already sent Brent Crude prices soaring and triggered a global energy security challenge of historic proportions. For the rest of the world, too, this conflict leads to a devastating economic triple-threat i.e. stagflation in major economies, a severe food security emergency due to disrupted fertilizer supplies, and a breakdown of international maritime law. The resulting social unrest, fiscal pressure and inflation, particularly in more energy-dependent regions like Europe and North Africa, clearly suggest that can’t be treated merely a regional dispute but a major destabilizing force with a potential of fracturing the global economic and socio-political order.
Considering the complexity and wide repercussions of war, the author proposes to deal with the West Asia crisis in two parts: The first part essentially deals with motives of war, its escalation and fall out, and consequent stalemate compelling adversaries to come on the negotiating tables seeking diplomatic efforts to end the conflict, and the second part would handle the global economic fallout, role of international organizations, nations taking sides, possible scenarios in the event of the continued war, and assessment of the author in the concluding part.
Motive of War – Apparent & Real
As mentioned, the current war West Asia or Iran war now escalated to an all-out conflict, was triggered by a massive and coordinated attack jointly by the US and Israel on the last day of February 2026. The author has endeavoured to visualize both explicit and implicit reasons as follows:
A. Explicit Reasons
The official reasons as provided by the US and Israeli governments to justify their initial strikes could be categorized as explicit or apparent reasons of war under the following heads.
1. Nuclear Red Line: The US and Israel claimed that the diplomacy in Geneva talks had officially exhausted its course while their Intelligence reports allegedly indicated that Iran was on the verge of “breakout capacity” i.e. the final step to assembling a deliverable nuclear warhead, a position clearly unacceptable to both the nations.
2. Pre-emptive Defense: Both the US President and Israeli Prime Minister cited Iran as an “imminent threat” to the regional stability. They justified a pre-emptive strike as the only way to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran from holding the Middle East hostage in near future.
3. Deterring Proxies: Another apparent reason for the strikes has been to dismantle the “command and control” centres of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) with a view to curtailing the flow of advanced weaponry to armed rebel groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, designated as terror or militant organizations by many countries, including the US and Israel.
4. Response to Internal Cracks: The civilian unrest in Iran turned to massive protests against the Islamic Republic’s clerical leadership towards late December 2025. Following the violent suppression of these domestic protests in early 2026, the West, more specifically the US and Israel, termed the intervention as a way to weaken a “repressive regime” that had lost its domestic legitimacy.
B. Implicit Reasons
This is as many analysts including this author visualize things beyond the headlines or breaking news in the context of the war as deeper geopolitical and domestic drivers.
1. Regime Change Motives: While officially denied at occasions, encouragement of internal uprisings, the targeting and assassination of the highest cadres of Iranian leadership, including the reported death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the opening waves of air strikes, amply indicates the allies’ real motive of the total decapitation of the Islamic Republic’s political structure. President Donald Trump widely known for self-contradicting statements and shifting stands had indicated initially that the goal of the strikes was a regime change, too.
2. Domestic Political Consolidation: About the United States, a view is held that the Trump administration sought to project decisive military strength and fulfill long-standing campaign promises regarding Iran in view of declining popular endorsement and support for their domestic policies. In Israel, too, the war served to unify a fractured domestic political landscape under Prime Minister Netanyahu’s wartime leadership.
3. Regional Hegemony: Arguably, one of the primary implicit goals was the permanent neutralization of the radicalized Iran as a regional power, thereby allowing for a new US led security architecture (including the expansion of the Abraham Accords) with least or none resistance from the “Axis of Resistance” (i.e. Iran led coalition of state and non-state actors such as Hezbollah, Hamas/PIJ, Houthis).
4. Strategic Failure of Diplomacy: The earlier strikes in June 2025 and the current conflict (28 February 2026 onwards) suggest a shift in the US led Western doctrine of moving from “containment” to “elimination” of the Iranian threat, regardless of the risk of global economic fallout and in particular the energy crisis.
Key Timeline of War with Milestone Events
The joint offensive commenced through the US Operation Epic Fury and Israel’s Operation Roaring Lion on February 28, 2026 as also Iran’s counter launch of the Operation True Promise started on 1st March 2026 have fundamentally altered the Middle Eastern (west Asia) landscape during the 6-7 weeks. The joint US-Israel thrusted a major blow on Iran on the very first day through a Decapitation Strike Death of its Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several top military officials. As a counter attack, Iran too fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel on 1st March 2026. By the following day, the regional militant organizations like Hezbollah and Houthis, declared as terrorists by many countries, also joined war taking Iran’s side and the Strait of Hormuz was closed by 2nd March. The devastating war has already entered its second month; oil prices having surged over 50%; now a dubious and doubtful temporary ceasefire declared two days ago.
A – Major US-Israel Offensive & Iranian Losses
(i) The opening surprise joint-attack on 28 February 2026 successfully targeted a high-level meeting in Tehran, leading to the demise of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and many other top-tier leaders/commanders, including the Army Chief of Staff, Abdolrahim Mousavi, as part the US-Israel goal of decapitation of the Iranian leadership.
(ii) The US-Israel forces jointly coordinated several strikes over a dozen nuclear-related facilities, including the primary enrichment site at Natanz. The coalition also claimed to have “neutralized” Iran’s immediate breakout capacity, though international inspectors have yet to verify the total extent of the damage and status of enriched Uranium in the possession of Iran.
(iii) The Israeli IDF and US forces are said to have destroyed an about 190 to 330 ballistic missile launchers (out of an estimated 470) in an endeavour to clearly establish an air and missile superiority over Iran. By mid-March, the joint US-Israel forces claimed air superiority over a large spart of Iranian territory, including the capital Tehran.
(iv) In an endeavour to neutralize proxies, a sustained bombing campaigns in Lebanon reportedly led to death of over 850 Hezbollah fighters besides significantly degrading their long-range rocket by the end of March 2026.
(v) Although casualty reports markedly vary, but various estimates suggest killings of Iranians from 3,500 and 7,000, including over 6,000 military personnel. Besides, the numbers of injured also run in thousands, including both military and civilians. The civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, bridges and schools near military sites, has suffered extensive “collateral” damage. So far, the worst reported collateral damage is an airstrike on girls’ primary school in Minab, Southern Iran, in which 165 casualties mostly of girl students aged 7-12 occurred on 28 February.
(vi) Reportedly, Iran has lost at least 150 naval vessels, many of these were part of its “asymmetric” swarm fleet used to harass shipping in the region. Here the author has avoided taking toll as reported in shifting statements of the US Presidents from time to time.
(vii) The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the destruction of energy infrastructure (refineries and ports) the alliance has steeply reduced Iran’s oil exports. This, combined with the loss of its central leadership, has left the Iranian state in a condition of “functional collapse.”
(viii) As regards the territorial and social impact, Iran was marred with internal domestic protests beginning January 2026) and further intensified among the news of possible West intervention. However, after the joint US-Israel offensive, the popular movement for the regime change appears to have slowed down.
(ix) By the time, in the current volatile war situation, a fragile or tactical pause (ceasefire) declared for two-weeks to enable immediate short-term diplomatic efforts to resolve issues, the US-Israel alliance had already started attacks on Iran’s civilian infrastructure like buildings, bridges, energy resources, etc., with Iran too gearing to respond in the same manner.
(x) The proclaimed victory by President Trump, time and again, has not been without enormous cost and significant losses to both US and Israel, including manpower, equipment, and significant damages to at least seventeen US bases in the region. According to reports, the Pentagon has recently estimated the direct military cost at $18 billion, and requested an additional $200 billion from Congress to sustain a long-term “coercive architecture” over the region.
Iranian Counter Strikes and Allied Losses
While the US and Israel completely dominated and initially achieved significant tactical successes, Iran’s retaliation under Operation True Promise 4 has also been extensive, shifting the conflict into a war of attrition targeting Israel and US interests in Gulf countries that has severely impacted the global economy and regional security.
(i) Iran adopted asymmetric “Swarm” tactics in launching thousands of loitering munitions (suicide drones) and ballistic missiles in persistent “waves. By late March, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had launched its 83rd wave of strikes, specifically targeting the US and Israeli “sensor and logistics” backbone.
(ii) The IRGC successfully targeted high-value assets like the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, reportedly destroying a US E-3 AWACS (a $500 million “flying radar” aircraft) and multiple refueling tankers. This strike significantly degraded American early-warning and coordination capabilities in the region.
(iii) It is pretty well known that Iran does not has capability to hit main US land with their existing missiles. So, they have retaliated by extending hostilities to the Arab neighbours who are hosting US forces in offering airbases and other facilities. Accordingly, major Iranian strikes have hit Al-Dhafra (UAE) and Ali Al-Salem (Kuwait) air bases, targeting maintenance hangars and Patriot missile batteries, and many such other facilities.
(iv) Militant and radical organizations, Hezbollah and Houthi acted as Force Multipliers and allies of Iran during the conflict, opening secondary fronts of hostilities on behalf of Iran. For instance, the Houthis have targeted even Israeli nuclear research sites, while Hezbollah struck RAF bases in Cyprus, forcing a significant engagement and diversion of Allied air defense resources.
(v) Iran has carried out massive strikes on Israeli civilians and infrastructure, including Tel Aviv and Beit Shemesh causing numerous civilian deaths and damage to the buildings/installations. Cluster submunitions have been used to overwhelm the Iron Dome, Israel’s all-weather air defense system, proving that even reinforced shelters are vulnerable.
(vi) Although the United States have largely remained discreet and often tight-lipped in revealing true losses, but at least 15 to 30 US personnel have been killed in their airbase strikes. The loss of strategic aircraft (AWACS) and damage to the “command and control” center in the region has slowed the scale of Allied operations. According to various estimates, aircraft ranging from 16 to over 20 in numbers of various genre have been either destroyed or heavily damaged that includes MQ-9 Reapers, F-15E / F-35 strike fighters, KC-135 tankers, MC-130J Hercules, and so on.
(vii) according to reports, the UAE alone has intercepted nearly 2,000 drones and 400 Iranian missiles. While most were downed, falling debris has caused fires in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, leading to a mass exodus of expats and a drop in oil production by up to estimated 800,000 barrels per day.
(viii) Iran’s most successful “strike” has been the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This has blocked 20 million barrels of oil per day and almost 20% of the world’s LNG, triggering a global energy crisis and paralyzing the 80-year-old U.S.-Saudi “oil for security” pact.
In a way, the aforesaid strategic successes and inflicting these costs, Iran has achieved its primary defensive goal i.e. forcing a stalemate in the war. By making the price of “regime change” a global economic depression and high Allied casualties, Iran has achieved success in compelling the US and Israel into a diplomatic thaw or a ceasefire, as evidenced by President Trump’s initial signals of a 10-day “pause” in energy infrastructure strikes, and now a temporary ceasefire bringing warring parties on a negotiation table, with Pakistan playing mediator apparently at US President’s behest.
Significant Stimuli Compelling an Early Truce
Approximately fourty days of war till 10 April 2026 indicates that the conflict has remained in a state of high-intensity, open-ended warfare, though now a complex “dual track” of escalation and back-channel diplomacy has emerged. While the initial “decapitation” phase by the US-Israel alliance is over, the war has now transitioned into a grueling campaign of attrition. Contrary to the US vision of a victory by achieving their war objectives in just a few days, Iran has proved to be a tough state despite heavy losses and the US-Israel duo despite an enormous cost inflicted on self and the world as a whole, and as of April 2026 they are far from subduing Iran which has faced the former’s assault with grit, firm resolve and counter war measures.
- President Trump’s critics at domestic turf, both in political spectrum and general public, argue that assault on Iran was carried out without clear objectives and Congressional approval, and that the military campaign is reckless without no clear plan for the “regime change” or viable reforms.
- The escalation of war led to an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruption of oil and gas supplies which constitutes about 20% of the total global trade. Consequently, while there has been global energy crisis, the US too is hit adversely with marked hike in gasoline prices causing widespread public frustration and resentment.
- Besides the opposition parties and general public, even prominent MAGA (Make America great Again) loyalists like Tucker Carlson or Megyn Kelly have been vocal opposing the war, criticizing President Trump for abandoning his anti-war campaign promises.
- As reported by mainstream US media as also some recent polls, the approval rating of President Trump has gone down to about 59%, with only a small minority population fully supporting his war action.
- The war has moved beyond the 3 adversaries with Iran successfully targeting US bases and neighbouring Arab countries like UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia for hosting US assets. With the entry of radical organizations like Hezbollah and Houthis in the war, the alliance now faces far greater threats and challenges in achieving their objects of war. The regional spread of hostilities poses a greater danger to the world peace.
- It is true that sustained aerial and missile attacks by the US and Israel have caused severe damage to Iran but considering its size, terrain and military strength, it is well nigh impossible to establish a viable control or victory over Iran without ground operation, which both the US and Israel would be weary and hesitant to undertake considering the risked and uncertainties involved.
All these and perhaps some cowart/undisclosed reasons to have been behind the hurriedly forged peace negotiations in Islamabad under the aegis of Pakistan PM Shahbaz Shariff and Field Marshall Asim Munir on 11 April 2026. This author is highly circumspect and dubious about the sincerity and outcome of diplomatic efforts for the very reason of the choice of the middleman country and venue. Pakistan has an ill-reputation worldwide of harbouring some of the most dreaded terrorists and export of terrorism among many other serious flaws. However, of late the Pakistani leadership duo have emerged as favourites of President Trump, and their role of a stooge can be easily understood with the text of a tweet of Shahbaz Shariff, having received worldwide even before the adversaries agreed to come on a negotiating table:
“Draft – Pakistan’s PM message on X”
Diplomatic efforts for peaceful settlement of the ongoing war in the Middle East are progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully with the potential to lead to substantive results in near future. To allow diplomacy to run its course, I earnestly request President Trump to extend the deadline for two weeks. Pakistan, in all sincerity, requests the Iranian brothers to open Strait of Hormuz for a corresponding period of two weeks as a goodwill gesture. We also urge all warring parties to observe a ceasefire everywhere for two weeks to allow diplomacy to achieve conclusive termination of war, in the interest of long-term peace and stability in the region.
(Addressed to important functionaries of all concerned)
From the above text, it is apparent that PM Shariff had received a draft message from elsewhere (this could be anybody’s guess) which was, initially, verbatim posted on ‘X’ without any application of mind. By the time, the message was deleted, corrected and reposted, it has wide circulation on internet, many ridiculing Shahbaz Shariff and Pakistan of their exact role. It’s obvious that the Iran leadership may although participate in negotiations but they will not trust Pakistan. On their part, Israel has formally rejected Pakistan as a credible mediator in the US-Iran conflict, with Israeli officials expressing deep distrust in Islamabad’s role. Although the US appears to have engaged Pakistan in backchannel diplomacy and hosting negotiations, Israel clearly take Pakistan’s involvement merely as logistical facilitation rather than a trusted diplomatic mediator.
US and Iranian Terms for Permanent Ceasefire
On 7 April 2026, the US President Donald Trump tweeted as under:
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will. However, now that we have Complete and Total Regime Change, where different, smarter, and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionarily wonderful can happen, WHO KNOWS? We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World. 47 years of extortion, corruption, and death, will finally end. God Bless the Great People of Iran!
This tweet immediate received worldwide attention and criticism from many quarters because when you talk about destroying a civilization, it is often linked with the nuclear holocast. However, just about one and a-half hour before the deadline set, a news came about the two parties having agreed for a two-weeks ceasefire and willingness to reach an agreement through the diplomatic talks. On their part, the US has sponsored a 15-point proposal that inter alia includes sanctions relief and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz while the Iran has three core demands among other things. For the sake of brevity, only more important aspects of both sides have been listed in the following lines. In this context, it is relevant to mention that Tehran had earlier rejected these US demands. Apart from the war compulsions and cost of both sides, some other developments such as displacement of a large population including nearly 1.2 million in just one month’s war, disruption of global shipping transiting through the strait of Hormuz, domestic pressures in the US and Iran might work in favour of an early settlement, provided a good sense prevails on either side.
A – US Terms
The US proposal essentially seeks a fundamental reset of Iran’s strategic capabilities, and it seems highly unlikely that the latter would agree to it in the current form. It is understood that the US has transmitted its 15-point proposal to Iran through Pakistan during the last week of March 2026, which the US administration describes as a comprehensive deal to end the war. The key points of the proposal are briefly given as under:
(i) The very first demand relates to the total nuclear rollback in immediate dismantling of all uranium enrichment facilities and the handover of all enriched stockpiles to the designated agency.
(ii) Iran must enter a legally binding commitment to never resume enrichment leading to a permanent enrichment ban.
(iii) Iran must immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz and guarantee a safe passage for all international shipping.
(iv) US seeks strict curbs on the range and development of ballistic and cruise missiles.
(v) Iran should allow enhanced international monitoring in terms of “anywhere, anytime” inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.
(vi) Iran must agree to a formal cessation of financial and military support for the “Axis of Resistance” (Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.).
(vii) The US would consider sequential lifting of all economic and energy sanctions against Iran following the verified compliance.
(viii) The US would assist in civilian nuclear cooperation in developing non-military nuclear energy at the Bushehr site.
(ix) A “all-for-all” swap of detained foreign and dual nationals on either side would be done.
(x) A new U.S.-led Middle East security architecture would be evolved as a Regional Security Framework and Iran would be allowed to participate in it.
The remaining points from 11 to 15 essentially involve technical details on verification, maritime patrolling, and financial reintegration, etc.
B – Iran’s Terms
On their part, Iran has floated 3 major conditions or demands for a ceasefire apparently following consultations with Russia and Pakistan and they have outlined these demands as three non-negotiable conditions for Tehran to stop its counter-strikes.
(i) The US must formally recognize Iran’s sovereign and legitimate rights, which includes the right to a peaceful civilian nuclear program and its territorial sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
(ii) Iran must be allowed full war reparations involving massive financial compensation (estimates might be in the hundreds of billion dollars) against the “kinetic destruction” of the Iranian leadership, infrastructure, and nuclear facilities since 28 February 2026.
(iii) Iran seeks “firm and binding” guarantees from the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and major powers (specifically citing Russia and China) that it will not be subject to future pre-emptive strikes or “regime change” operations.
Epilogue
The crisis, which erupted on 28 February 2026, was triggered by a massive US-Israeli offensive (Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion) designed to decapitate the Iranian leadership and dismantle its nuclear program following the collapse in indirect diplomacy. The initial strikes successfully neutralized high-value targets in Iran, including the reported killing of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamani, which triggered a devastating asymmetric response. Iran’s “Operation True Promise 4” and the subsequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have paralyzed about 20% of the world’s oil and LNG supply, plunging the global economy into a state of stagflation and a severe energy security crisis. As of early April, the war has transitioned into a deadly stalemate: While the coalition holds air superiority, but Iran’s “ghost fleet” and missile waves continue to inflict high costs on the US bases, Israel, and US regional allies like the UAE, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. While author is concluding with these lines, a complex trilateral talk is on in Islamabad, Pakistan.
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